Has The Demand For Chips Recovered?

Has the demand for chips recovered? Let's take a look at the condition of the terminal.

Over the past few months, the production of electronics in major Asian countries has grown steadily. In April 2025, the three-month average change rate of China's electronics output from the same period last year (March 12) was 11.5%, up from 9.5% in January, but lower than the three-month average change rate of 12% in 2024. India saw the strongest growth, with output of 15% in March, up from 3% six months earlier. Three-month average output growth in South Korea, Vietnam and Malaysia also accelerated in April.

0021-02983 TXZ Inner Shield

U.S. electronics production growth has been accelerating over the past six months, with 4.6% growth in April 3/12, 2025, up from 0.4% in October 2024 and the highest increase since November 2022. Part of the reason for the increase in U.S. production may be due to the ramp-up of U.S. factories as imports are threatened with tariffs. After being below 1% or negative for most of 2024, Japan's 3/12 output averaged 4.5% in the last three months of February 2025. The EU-27 had a 2.8% growth rate on March 12, 2025, while the UK had zero growth rate on March 3/12, 2025.

0040-09094 CHAMBER 200mm

While China's total electronics production grew by 10% or more in renminbi terms in the first four months of 2025, the data on the production of specific devices shows a different trend. In April 2025, personal computer (PC) production increased by 4.2%. Although lower than the previous two months, PC production has been on an upward trend since -2% in November 2024. In April, color TV production was -2.2%, down sharply from 12.5% in December 2024. Smartphone production has been negative since January 2025, compared to an average growth rate of 10% in the months of 2024.

In April 2025, U.S. smartphone imports fell sharply to 7.6 million units, down 45% from 14 million units in March. Imports from China fell 61% to 2.1 million units in April from 5.4 million units in March. Imports from India fell by 47 percent and imports from Vietnam fell by 14 percent. In April, India was the largest source of smartphone imports from the United States, with imports reaching 3 million units; followed by Vietnam, with imports of 2.4 million units; In China, it is 2.1 million. Apple has been ramping up iPhone production in India to replace production in China. Most of Samsung's smartphones are manufactured in Vietnam.

The decline in U.S. smartphone imports and the shift of production from China to other countries are largely due to tariffs imposed or threatened by the Trump administration. The proposed tariff policy is inconsistent. In 2025, President Trump made the following statement regarding the imposition of tariffs on Chinese imports and smartphones:

March 4: 20% tariff on Chinese imports

April 2: Increase tariff to 34%

April 9: Increase tariff to 145%

April 11: Eliminate tariffs on smartphones

May 12: Lower tariffs on Chinese imports to 30%

May 23: Propose a 25% tariff on imported smartphones by the end of June

These trends in smartphone production and imports will soon have a significant impact on the U.S. smartphone market. Counterpoint Research estimates that Apple's iPhone sales in the U.S. increased by 27% year-over-year between April and May 2025. Counterpoint questioned whether the strong U.S. sales were due to consumers buying now because they were worried about future tariffs.

U.S. smartphone stocks may soon run out, leading to product shortages and price increases. We will see these effects in the coming months.